McCain

[tomdarch]

Summary:
1. Obama and Biden - pretty normal guys who have worked their ways up.
2. McCain - born into privilege, married into wealth - out of touch
3. (Cindy) McCain's money is the product of an 'artificial' business that only exists thanks to lobbying
4. McCain hangs out with some fucked up rich (and fake rich) people and their lobbyists

40 years removed? mccain or biden?

biden, mccain, and obama Are all millionaires.you seriously think anyone of them know how to relate to the commmon man.....?

I'm kinda with Larry on not taking the "how many houses" thing too seriously, in and of itself. The McCains are in a weird place. They're certainly "rich", but at the same time they're "trailer park rich". They HAVE to invest in individual houses and condos to make money. Their (Cindy's) money comes not from some huge, diversified pool of global investments, but from a real, operating company that could well fail before the end of their life expectancies.

Also, the business, a beer distributor, exists only because of a set of anti-competitive state-level laws that 'artificially' create three tiers of beer/wine/liquor (brewers, distributors, and retailers). These distributors are the literal "middle men" of the bad old days of our economy. They make our beer/wine/liquor cost more and only exist because they lobby the shit out of state legislatures to keep the laws on the books that govern them.

But they roll with actual rich people (see below), and they're often the poorest people in the room - that's the scary counterpoint to their general richness. On the one hand, they aren't feeling a damn bit of squeeze from the current "worst financial crisis since WWII" but at the same time, they must feel some aspiration to join the truly wealthy, and both will lead people to do some freaky stuff. (It's interesting that Cindy's dad was so insistent about the heavy duty pre-nup. Given the circumstances of their relationship, I don't blame him for not really trusting McCain.)

I'm not going to waste time digging much into Biden's bio, but he seems to have grown up pretty "normal". (His dad had a hard time finding consistent work in rust-belt Scranton, so they moved to Delaware, where he became a car salesman.) McCain himself grew up in a type of privileged world as the son and grandson of four star Admirals. I don't know if they were "rich", but he sure didn't have to worry that dad was going to get laid off from "the plant." I think that McCain's fucking around at the Naval Academy is a sign of how he applied his inherited privilege in the real world. I went to an "elite" high school with children of big-wigs (kids of big politicians and business people, but not admirals/generals). Very few of them were in the top track classes with me and I doubt most of them were admitted because of their performance on the entrance exam. Some worked their asses off and were pretty impressive. Others remind me of what I've read about McCain.

But my main gripe is that to say that because Obama is a "millionaire" today, he doesn't have a clear, gut feeling for what we're all experiencing now in this Bush/Gramm/McCain economy is just crap. As a little kid, Obama went from living with his single mom, to living for a few years in Indonesia (where I'd guess that the family was "well off") When he was 10 he went back to Hawaii and he lived with his grandparents, who I'm guessing weren't anything like "rich." He managed to get himself into Columbia, I'm guessing with scholarships. He worked in Chicago after that in the late 80s - he said at the Service Forum that he was making $12,000 a year (about $21,000 a year in today's dollars.) After that, he got himself into Harvard Law, again I'm guessing with scholarships/loans. After that, he did OK - some work at law firms, a book deal and teaching Constitutional Law at U of Chicago. (Non-tenure track faculty usually don't make much money).

Speaking of doing freaky stuff with really rich people and their hangers on - McCain spent his 70th birthday on two different yachts off the coast of Macedonia in late August 2006. He was just off a junket in Georgia (the country) because his current foreign policy advisor, Randy Scheunemann, was at the time a paid lobbyist for Georgia. McCain then spent his birthday in Macedonia because Rick Davis, McCain's 2000 campaign manager, was working as a lobbyist for that country.

So, one party was on a Russian mining tycoon's yacht. McCain met this guy, Deripaska, at an economic summit in Davos earlier in 2006. Deripaska got up in the world by marrying Boris Yeltsin's daughter and is an ally of Vladimir Putin. (Deripaska used Bob Dole as a lobbyist to try to get a US Visa, but the FBI wouldn't allow it.) The birthday party was happening because the tycoon was hoping to get McCain to influence the Boeing vs. EADS/Airbus Air Force refueling plane contract. Deripaska would be the supplier for the aluminum for the planes and he was simultaneously in the process of investing in EADS via a Russian bank. The Air Force did award EADS the contract, but they later changed their minds.

The other McCain birthday boat party was with Anne Hathaway and her then-boyfriend, Raffaello Follieri, who is now imprisoned as a con-man. WTF!?!? At least part of this makes sense - Follieri was trying to do a deal with Rick Davis, who was also lobbying for an investment fund.

Yep, McCain is totally going to clean up Washington and Obama is a dirty machine politician surrounded by lobbyists with his fingers in all sorts of slimy deals. Larry is sooooo right!

[tomdarch]

Summary:
1. McCain can't win on the issues
2. Republicans are slimy bastards
3. Lather, rinse, repeat

But on the topic of McCain and his continuing possession of the null set:

Win by fucking with the voting rights of people who's houses are being foreclosed.

Phil Gramm, John McCain and others write/pass the laws that lead to the mortgage crisis, McCain then uses the guy who wrote those crappy laws as his "economic advisor", then, when people are loosing their houses, prevent them from voting so they can keep screwing them.

Republicans in Michigan, a swing state, have said that they are going to hang out at the polls and try to fuck with, er, I mean, challenge the eligibility of any voter who's house is being repossessed on the grounds that they don't live where they are registered. (Of course, these "voter challenges" will also slow down voting in this high-turnout election, so I'm sure they'll be targeting Obama-leaning precincts...)

They've figured out that in places like Macomb County, most of the people in foreclosure are "black". But, you don't have to be "black" to realize that you're being screwed by Bush/Gramm/McCain's approach to the economy, which might just tilt your vote towards Obama, just a little...

On top of this, the fact the big "foreclosure specialists" in the county, Trott & Trott, are big McCain contributors. Oh, and McCain's regional offices are in Trott & Trott's own office building.

Of course this is part of the Michigan GOP's “election integrityâ€

[pigsteak]

the libs have gone mad....sounds like the neo cons got it about right........

[bcombs]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anxkrm9u ... ture=bz301

Hehe... I guess Matt Damon won't be visiting our world reknowned Creation Museum?

[tomdarch]

Sometimes I think to myself, "hmm... well, McCain might not be that bad, must be better than fuckup Bush..." But if McCain wants to run America as well as he's running his campaign, we're really, really in trouble.

Back in October 07, McCain was at a debate with Mitt Romney, governor of Massachusetts and Rudy Giulianni, former mayor of New York.

John McCain's takedown on his rivals:

I am prepared. I am prepared. I need no on-the-job training. I wasn't a mayor for a short period of time. I wasn't a governor for a short period of time.

Romney: then governor of Massachusetts for about 4 years
population: 6.5 million
state GDP 2006: $351 billion

Giulianni, former mayor of New York for 6 years
population: 8 million
regional annual GDP: $1.13 trillion (more than just the city)

Sarah Palin, governor of Alaska for 20 months
population: 680,000 (the smallest state population in the US)
state GDP in 2007: $43 billion

So, McCain had pointed out that Palin's "bridge to nowhere" type of pork contributed to the collapse of the bridge in Minneapolis and he also pointed out that being mayor or governor of major states and cities aren't strong qualifications to the White House.

But, McCain still selected her, setting up these inevitable contradictions. Yet another huge campaign fuck up.

[pigsteak]

but tom, here is the REAL question. with the ineptness of mccain's campaign and the god-like status of obama-rama, why in the world are we in a neck and neck race right now? sounds like , to me, the obama campaign, is a WAAAY bigger f*** up than mccains, if they can't put this old codger away.

I look forward to your varnished spin....sorry, polished spin.

[L K Day]

Falling in the polls like a rock, Obama claims that his management of the campaign is an example of significant executive experience. Perhaps he's right.

[Crankmas]

McCain takes a boat ride with some questionable cat and Tom wants to ride him out, monkey boy sits in church with a radical USA hating SOB and hey it ain't nothin but a thing, pathetic.

[dmw]

I registered to vote in Montana this am at the farmer's market here in Bozeman.....and I am volunteering for the Obama campaign!!!!! Can't wait to come pounding on L K Day's door....... and did anyone watch that psychopath Chuck Norris on Larry King? Who knew what a freak he was, I didn't. That dude is so whack, for real. I bet you will see him at the Jesus Ponies exhibit in the Northern Kentucky creation museum......
btw relying on a Ras poll for your information is pretty lame-o.

[tomdarch]

but tom, here is the REAL question. with the ineptness of mccain's campaign and the god-like status of obama-rama, why in the world are we in a neck and neck race right now? sounds like , to me, the obama campaign, is a WAAAY bigger f*** up than mccains, if they can't put this old codger away.

I look forward to your varnished spin....sorry, polished spin.

McCain's riding three bubbles. There are polls all over the place, but when they're averaged out, McCain is "winning" by about 2-3 percentage points in the popular vote. (The electoral college map is a little different, but if the election was tomorrow, there's an OK chance McCain would get the required 270+ EV.) Will the personalities, lies and distractions hold until November? We'll see.

Bubble 1: Convention bubble: Analysis of past convention "bumps" says that they run for about four weeks after the event. When the offset "bumps" from the Democratic then the Republican conventions is overlapped, McCain should be getting a 2 to 3 point bump in the overall polls for about another two weeks, then all the convention bump effects should zero out by the end of September.

Here's the historical pattern for an isolated Convention bubble:

Here's what happens when there are two convention bubbles overlapping, as there are this round:

Look familiar? Yep, there's the bulk of McCain's current popular vote lead. (and no, I didn't come up with the graphs myself, of course!)

Bubble 2: Palin excitement: "It's Extreme Makeover: Campaign Edition!" "Bus driver ... MOVE THAT BUS!! Oh, and I was a POW" Honestly, I don't know how this is going to work out. Obviously, from a policy point of view, her performance on ABC was a train wreck (Not just the bullshitting on the Bush Doctrine, but the comment that Israel should have free reign to attack neighbors is astoundingly bad news.) But I'm guessing that for folks in the middle, it was OK enough. No home runs, and while she actually fouled out, there was no ref to call the out, so, OK. If anything it set such a low bar that weeks of additional coaching will make her look better in her debate with Biden.

Also, I suspect that "Troopergate" will pretty much be a wash. By reading actual documents from the case, Palin and her husband come across as fairly crazy people who really, really carry a grudge. They hired a PI on their own dime to get dirt on the guy, had a judge tell them to back off twice, carried on trying to get him fired well after the divorce, and as governor even tried to mess with one of his workers comp claims. But the core issue in the investigation was her firing not the trooper, but rather the head of the state Public Safety department, because he wouldn't do as she told him to fire the guy. That's way too indirect for most people to grasp. The McCain spin will be "she was just protecting her family!" Even if there's serious action against her from the investigation, the guy handling the investigation is a "Democrat" and it will be spun as a partisan witch hunt. (Despite it originating as a bi-partisan deal.)

The problem for McCain is that the Palin bounce has been overwhelmingly in Red states, or states where Obama had a big lead (e.g. WA went from +10 to +5 for Obama). He'll get a larger percent of the popular vote, but he's got to win the electoral college. Right now, the main possible "swing" states where he's gotten Palin boost are VA and NC. He has literally had the least bounce in the big swing states of FL, OH, NM, MI, WI, CO, PA and NV. If the Palin bounce, by itself, is 2 points and wears off in the critical middle third, that would put him in trouble in OH and CO, and FL would be pretty tight. If the standard convention bounce wears off at the same time, then you'll be hearing lots of over-hyped "McCain's Palin pick big Mistake!" because of the simultaneous shifts.

Yes, I know that you can point to individual small-sample-group state polls that show bigger advantages for either ticket. You need to go out and find the sites that use weighted averages of those smaller polls to come up with a better 'big picture' snapshot of current polling. For example, on Sept. 7th, Quinnipiac has polled Ohio as Obama +5 and Rassumssen as McCain +7. Those are both top-notch polling operations, with good sized groups, but they're obviously "diverging from the mean."

Bubble 3: 9/11 Psychology: Research has shown that when people are reminded of danger or death, they react by making "conservative" decisions. In this case, the older, "experienced" McCain seems like a better choice than the "hopeful" Obama. How big this bump is, and how long it will last is hard to say, but I'm pretty sure it's having some small effect for the moment. (The disgusting propaganda "9/11 Tribute" piece at the RNC is clearly designed to play on this, as an example)

The McCain campaign knows all this - if the current level of lies and distractions is when they're up, I really hate to think about what they've got planned for when all this wears off. It sure won't be "the issues."

Also, it's interesting how opinions of how well run campaigns are is generally hair-trigger tracks the current polls. Just think - if someone had told you 10 or 20 years ago that in 2008 a "black" and a "white" candidate would be running neck-and-neck for the presidency, just how amazing that would have sounded... (Sadly, McCain's "bubble" advantage there will not wear off before November.)