RRC Archives

I thought this was interesting.

<img src="http://lh6.google.com/Bram.Jennifer/R0L ... 20Year.jpg">

Interesting cyclical nature of development. Look at 79-84, 84-92, and 92-04/05. There is a definite downturn the past 2 years. Why is this? Loss of Jared and Tim? Muir and PMRP are not full and definitely have more rock to develop. It is interesting to note that 84 had as many routes as we have to date in 07. It appears the past couple of years averaged 3 routes per week while this year averaged 1 route per week. Given our track record of trail days and volunteerism, what rate of development is sustainable? In other words, at what rate can new trails and cliff bases be established while still maintaining existing bolts, cliff bases, and trails?

where's the link?

It should be up now.

you have to be logged in? just gank the image/data/whatever. this should be GOOD.

Before even seeing the data I will conclude that it is due to some stochastic process at work. These processes are due to the inherent variability (and the magnified results from the interaction of this randomness) of a complex multi-variable system. Much like El Nino. I think we should call ours, El Heapo.

A butterfly flaps its wings in China and through a complex system, Pigsteak does or doesn't bolt a slab?

If I'm remembering correctly, that last spike correlates with both Muir and Sore Heel being developed. If there's anything stochastic going on, it's when cliffs are made available for development.

(Just imagine if we had free reign on State Park and FS land! Mwahhahahhahaha! Trails? We don't need no sitinking trails! Er, just kidding...)

Also, would it be possible to break out sport vs. trad development? It would be interesting to see that as side-by-side bars. Obviously, sport development has taken off over the years, but there is still a fair amount of trad development, esp. with areas like Muir opening up.

By the way, I don't see closed areas like Arena and Pocket Wall listed in the guide currently - is that development included in your data? If all the routes from closed areas are missing, that might account for that trough around 2000.

No, the data is from the online guide and it includes Oil Crack and the Arena. Pocket wall and older routes like those listed in the old guides for natural bridge and other areas are not included. I'll throw in Pocket Wall and see what that does. I will break out sport and trad as well. Does anyone know how many routes are in the old guidebooks but not in the online guide? Is it a number worth fooling with?

I wouldn't bother with the old books. The online is pretty comprehensive and if you throw in the numbers for Pocket Wall you should be close enough.

Don't forget to factor in the loss of John and Terry...

OK, here is the data with Pocket Wall thrown in. That added 13 sport in 94, 1 sport in 95, 3 sport and 1 trad in 96, and 2 sport in 97.

<img src="http://lh5.google.com/Bram.Jennifer/R0M ... 20Type.jpg">

Year Total Trad Sport
1969 5 5
1970 10 10
1971 1 1
1972 1 1
1973 7 7
1974 12 12
1975 9 9
1976 14 14
1977 22 22
1978 5 5
1979 20 20
1980 14 14
1981 14 14
1982 20 20
1983 35 35
1984 55 55
1985 26 26
1986 13 13
1987 32 32
1988 40 40
1989 35 32 3
1990 81 51 30
1991 80 39 41
1992 110 39 71
1993 49 15 34
1994 57 29 28
1995 49 13 36
1996 33 11 22
1997 33 11 22
1998 24 9 15
1999 19 14 5
2000 17 9 8
2001 26 16 10
2002 31 12 19
2003 67 24 43
2004 179 64 115
2005 177 70 107
2006 140 44 96
2007 53 8 45

I think the apparent cycles may correspond to crag discovery / access. Certainly the peak around 2005 is activity at MV.

Kool distribution!