Obama gets another one right.

Post by **caribe** » Thu Feb 18, 2010 3:56 pm

Regarding job losses and the general health of the economy, is this graph correct, and what does it mean for US financial future overall. It is a graph of a derivative d(jobs)/dt. Does it just define the time function and magnitude of the recession? The inflection point is interesting because is appears to occur during the changing of the guard.

Post by **mike_a_lafontaine** » Thu Feb 18, 2010 5:31 pm

The fact that the number of job loss is slowing doesn't necessarily mean anything good. It COULD mean the recession is ending, or it just might mean that we are running out of jobs that CAN be lost. It says nothing about the actual rate of jobs lost per jobs that are out there.

Imagine an apple tree with 1000 apples. If apples falling off followed a first order rate equation such that 10% of the apples fell every day, on day 1, 100 apples will fall off. By day 25 only 7 apples will fall off. That doesn't mean the apple situation is getting any better for the tree, simply that there are less apples to start with. It would generate the same type of graph as the one above.

Post by **caribe** » Thu Feb 18, 2010 6:02 pm

mike_a_lafontaine wrote:The fact that the number of job loss is slowing doesn't necessarily mean anything good. It COULD mean the recession is ending, or it just might mean that we are running out of jobs that CAN be lost.

Did you feel that you had to translate/ clarify that statements that I included with the graph?

mike_a_lafontaine wrote: It says nothing about the actual rate of jobs lost per jobs that are out there.

That calculation is simple, and you know from the news that the negative integral (absolute value of the area between the curve and the zero line) must approximately equal 10% of the total jobs in the USA.

Post by **Clevis Hitch** » Thu Feb 18, 2010 6:42 pm

Dude, for all of our sakes I hope you're right. I hope this shit gets fixed. I don't think it is. You do. I hope I'm wrong.

Post by **caribe** » Thu Feb 18, 2010 6:48 pm

Clevis Hitch wrote:Dude, for all of our sakes I hope you're right. I hope this shit gets fixed. I don't think it is. You do. I hope I'm wrong.

I am wondering this is why I posed the question. Just taking the losses that came with the implosion in mortgage loans into account, is this graph just a reflection of the market or is it good news in response to Obama's initiatives? I am wondering. The inflection point at the changing of the guard may bode well, but it could be dumb luck.

Post by **toad857** » Thu Feb 18, 2010 7:46 pm

obama got another one right? that's two. sweet. that officially makes him the best president in the past 10 years

Post by **michaelarmand** » Thu Feb 18, 2010 11:04 pm

Well yes we may be turning the corner on the job losses, but when is the economy going to start actually growing again?

The only hard fact is that the Obama administration made big promises for the stimulus package - and it did not deliver. Unemployment went over 10%, and I think it is still there....

Post by **toad857** » Fri Feb 19, 2010 12:33 am

michaelarmand wrote:but when is the economy going to start actually growing again?

who says it's gonna? we're not entitled to it.

seriously. consider how much the country has changed in the past few decades: small businesses of america are caput. we import everything. we're the laziest and dumbest folk on the earth.

all im sayin is that the "good ol' days" were a time of high-octane economic fun, and everything that goes up must come down. nobody is entitled to a gallon of gas for $1.17

or a cheeseburger for $0.99

Post by **Meadows** » Fri Feb 19, 2010 12:42 am

Thanks ... I was seeking a graph for my stats class. Perfect!

Post by **Clevis Hitch** » Fri Feb 19, 2010 12:43 am

You can still get a slider for 99. I ain't counting on the economy doing anything. Me and mine are taken care of. I've got enough to carry us through three generations. We'll be fine. Its the rest of yo I worry about.