busty wrote:My point in comparing travel in space to discovering new fuels is this....we have highly developed technologies in a multitude of scientific areas.
My point was that general technological development in now way presumes the development of a specific technology. Each problem is its own discrete entity and presents its own set of puzzles that may fall outside the realm of all other problems. To generate a prediction based on fourty years of scientific histories, located in a number of generally unrelatable ways (other than they are both 'science'), seems risky.
So, finally, here is my concern on the energy crisis.
Hydrogen is not fully here yet. We have serious issues with efficiency (70% with gasoline as the base) and storage (hydrogen under pressure is sketchy), not to mention the problems of generating an entirely new infrastructure and building new vehicles (both of which require energy).
Bio-diesel and Ethanol, while renewable, are also net energy losers. If you figure in the fuel used for growing (pesiticides, running irrigation pumps) the corn/sunflower/etc, the fuel used for the distillation process, and, finally, fuel used for transport, it doesn't seem so efficient (sources omitted for sake of clarity). There is also a spatial dimension - as in, I'm not sure we have enough land to support a corn-car society and a domestic food supply.
We've already tapped into most of the hydroelectric power (though this destroys riverine habitats and messes with streamflow dynamics.
Windpower and solar power, if heavily subsidized by the state, could be useful. I read a projection that Atlanta, for instance, could be a net-zero city if every building was topped with solar panels. This, however, requires energy to build.
My major concern is the lack of our ability to manuever because we're (you, me, the state, corporations) hemmed in by expensive energy. It could have serious effects on the scale at which we can work this problem as we move forward in time.
Oh, and if I googled something and cited it in my legal briefs and motions for my job, I'd get my ass laughed out of court. Google is nice, but you can't rely on it as the ultimate source on things.
There is a time and place for everything. Google is expedient in this case and a fair approximation of the 'truth' given the very serious nature of these conversations. As an attorney, I'm sure you are aware that any body of knowledge (including positive law) is only partial, such that there is never an ultimate source on anything.....
can argue like a grown-up
tommy