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Kiribell wrote:Would someone be kind enough to translate all that into a simple estimation of what percent chance there is for a bolt to fail on a lead fall in the Red?

I realize that is an extremely simplistic question but please humor me..

Hi Kiribell,

Since I started this thread, I should try to give you an answer, although you may not find it satisfying.

In a nutshell there are far too many variables to provide a general answer by analytical means. What is the percentage chance that you will be hit by a car today? Depends on many things. Location, traffic patterns, your attentiveness, etc.

However, one might suggest an answer based on anecdotal information. I believe I am correct in saying that, in the Red, there has not been a serious injury resulting from a bolted hanger failing due to a leader's fall. Some of you oldtimers out there please correct me if this is wrong.

Here's something to worry about that carries a much higher probability than a bolt failure (IMHO). Check out the number of climbs in the Red where a leader fall from the second bolt, after failing to clip it, could result in a decking.

Rick

"Here's something to worry about that carries a much higher probability than a bolt failure (IMHO). Check out the number of climbs in the Red where a leader fall from the second bolt, after failing to clip it, could result in a decking"

Well there really isn't any way to avoid that on all climbs is there? You either have no protection to a higher placed first bolt or take a "deck" risk if you fall before you clip the second bolt. Lead climbing has it's thrills but the danger factor is triple that of top-roping. To much run-out between bolts is hard to avoid 100% of the time I'd say. Especially with the inconsistancy of the rock in the Red. I guess you just have to make an observation before sending the route and accept the risk if you have a run-out. One could always throw in some trad pro to compensate if possible I suppose..

There are several ways to avoid such a situation. In Muir, we usually put the first 3 bolts close together (or at least the first and second bolt) to avoid the possibility of decking while clipping your 2nd. To avoid the "no protection to a higher placed first bolt", bring along a stick clip. (I know what piggie will say about that last sentence....)

That's why Muir rocks!!!

I believe John had told me that there had only been one climbing death in the Red and that was due to a rappelling accident. If I recall right it was at Fortress and the rappel tree pulled out of the ground.

Isn't there something like 1 death a year on average in the Red from climbing related accidents? I thought I had read that somewhere..Anyone know what the national statistics are?

Kiribell wrote:Isn't there something like 1 death a year on average in the Red from climbing related accidents? I thought I had read that somewhere..Anyone know what the national statistics are?

Nope, but about one person a year dies from falling off a cliff. Usually drunk, and/or sport rappling.

Wes

So does that translate to "usually a local, and rarely ever a climber?" Gotta love Rednecks!

Kiribell wrote:So does that translate to "usually a local, and rarely ever a climber?" Gotta love Rednecks!

Usually an Ohioan. A friend of mine called the RRG "the place where idiots from Ohio come to die."

Wes wrote:Nope, but about one person a year dies from falling off a cliff. Usually drunk, and/or sport rappling.

.

And sometimes its people wandering off a cliff in the middle of the night.

"Usually an Ohioan. A friend of mine called the RRG "the place where idiots from Ohio come to die."

Haha. As if Kentucky lacked high numbers of intellectually challanged individuals...Funny comment though, quite the smartass one, but funny!