Hi Kiribell,Kiribell wrote:Would someone be kind enough to translate all that into a simple estimation of what percent chance there is for a bolt to fail on a lead fall in the Red?
I realize that is an extremely simplistic question but please humor me..
Since I started this thread, I should try to give you an answer, although you may not find it satisfying.
In a nutshell there are far too many variables to provide a general answer by analytical means. What is the percentage chance that you will be hit by a car today? Depends on many things. Location, traffic patterns, your attentiveness, etc.
However, one might suggest an answer based on anecdotal information. I believe I am correct in saying that, in the Red, there has not been a serious injury resulting from a bolted hanger failing due to a leader's fall. Some of you oldtimers out there please correct me if this is wrong.
Here's something to worry about that carries a much higher probability than a bolt failure (IMHO). Check out the number of climbs in the Red where a leader fall from the second bolt, after failing to clip it, could result in a decking.
Rick