The BIG QUESTION
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Clevis Hitch
- Posts: 1461
- Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 5:10 pm
Risk assessment is always an interesting thing. Some spend their time worrying and planning about a one in a billion chance of something really bad happening. Others, spend time with two or three 1 in a million things that would suck, or just a handful of 1 in a thousand things that would only sorta suck. Clevis is the 1 in a billion planner, and if that comes to pass you will be prepared, more or less. But, you also let all the lower risk chances go unchallenged. Losing a job is pretty common, even losing an industry. Think textile workers in the 80's, autoworkers in the 90's/2000's. There are 4th generation auto workers that now not only don't have a job, they lost retirement / pensions / and a whole industry. Construction is the same. If you study trends as much as you say you do, you should have seen the housing bubble coming 5+ years ago, and would have had plenty of time to learn a new skill and find a job with a future. That wouldn't rule out still prepping for the collapse of western civ, but you would be in a better place to do so today, if you would have looked what would be more likely to happen. Like Kip, he is set for most/all of the 1 in a thousand type bad things that can happen. But, maybe not as worried about the 1 in a billion, though spending a little time and money on that isn't a bad idea, prepping for the more likely event is much more logical.
I, personally, don't see the full collapse thing happening. Doesn't mean I haven't though of what might be good courses of action, but that I would rather put more energy into planning for much more likely events. Just changed careers back to tech work from photography because is it much more stable and it (in my mind, at least) has a much better future. So, now it is get out of debt time, buy a few "worst case" tools, and try to get to where kip is in a couple years.
I, personally, don't see the full collapse thing happening. Doesn't mean I haven't though of what might be good courses of action, but that I would rather put more energy into planning for much more likely events. Just changed careers back to tech work from photography because is it much more stable and it (in my mind, at least) has a much better future. So, now it is get out of debt time, buy a few "worst case" tools, and try to get to where kip is in a couple years.
"There is no secret ingredient"
Po, the kung fu panda
Po, the kung fu panda
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Clevis Hitch
- Posts: 1461
- Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 5:10 pm
Amazing. utterly amazing. They just had an earthquake in this hemisphere. Couple of years ago we lost almost an entire city. There was a record number of hurricanes that year. I've heard meteorologists are calling for another spring of '74 tornado season. You belittle my fears by giving them the highest number. How droll. There is a lot of fear out there and I believe its substantiated.
I don't believe that theres going to be a complete collapse of the economy. What I do believe is that market forces that have be repressed or shielded by the Feds are going to come into play. Its inevitable. Tiny Tim and the Whiz kids are not going to be able to pull a rabbit out of the hat. The problem is they think they can.
Right now we are in a deflationary cycle. Some are calling for the inflationary cycle to begin shortly after mid-terms others push it out till 2014 The one thing they all say is its GONNA happen.
Try this as an example, Monopoly, the game. It has a set of rules. You follow those rules and you play the game. No problem. But what if you don't like the rules so you make up your own. It changes the game completely. If you disregard the rules and start playing your own game then what you are left with is not Monopoly. It's just some other game played on a Monopoly board. Extrapolate that example to the Amerikan economy.
I don't believe that theres going to be a complete collapse of the economy. What I do believe is that market forces that have be repressed or shielded by the Feds are going to come into play. Its inevitable. Tiny Tim and the Whiz kids are not going to be able to pull a rabbit out of the hat. The problem is they think they can.
Right now we are in a deflationary cycle. Some are calling for the inflationary cycle to begin shortly after mid-terms others push it out till 2014 The one thing they all say is its GONNA happen.
Try this as an example, Monopoly, the game. It has a set of rules. You follow those rules and you play the game. No problem. But what if you don't like the rules so you make up your own. It changes the game completely. If you disregard the rules and start playing your own game then what you are left with is not Monopoly. It's just some other game played on a Monopoly board. Extrapolate that example to the Amerikan economy.
If you give a man a match, he'll be warm for a minute. If you set him on fire, he'll be warm for the rest of his life!
CH, ever here of this thing called personal responsibility? Markets change, labor needs change. You choose to be a victim, rather then learning something new. And, if you are able to predict all these high end trends, you would think you could predict what jobs would be needed in the future as well, and then make yourself valuable based on those trends.
Earthquakes, hurricanes, locusts, etc are, actually, very rare events. Just because it is on cnn/fox/msnbc all the time, doesn't mean it is common - that shit sells, but it isn't what is going to happen to you, statistically speaking. Where, job lose, medical issues, higher unemployment, irrelevant skills are things that do happen to people, all the time.
Look at it this way - if Kipp looked into his crystal ball, and saw mass chaos was a posibillity, he could head down to the gun store, write a check for a couple AR's, glocks, and shotguns, with 5k rounds for each, hit up home depot for water filters, then wally world for food, shelter, and outdoor tools. Take a couple days off work and learn to shoot, if he doesn't already. And still have a 16-18 month cushion. He can still ride out any of the 1-in a thousand problems that come up, but is also able to deal with big problems.
The majority of the people absolutely suck at risk assessment, we are just hard wired to respond to the big, unusual events, at the expense of ignoring the smaller, yet much more common events closer to us.
There are always what ifs, like "what if you are surrounded by 12 ninjas with uzis? You can play that game all day, but in the end, you have to be able to look at what the odds say are going to effect you, and not pay too much attention to the sky is falling bloggers.
Earthquakes, hurricanes, locusts, etc are, actually, very rare events. Just because it is on cnn/fox/msnbc all the time, doesn't mean it is common - that shit sells, but it isn't what is going to happen to you, statistically speaking. Where, job lose, medical issues, higher unemployment, irrelevant skills are things that do happen to people, all the time.
Look at it this way - if Kipp looked into his crystal ball, and saw mass chaos was a posibillity, he could head down to the gun store, write a check for a couple AR's, glocks, and shotguns, with 5k rounds for each, hit up home depot for water filters, then wally world for food, shelter, and outdoor tools. Take a couple days off work and learn to shoot, if he doesn't already. And still have a 16-18 month cushion. He can still ride out any of the 1-in a thousand problems that come up, but is also able to deal with big problems.
The majority of the people absolutely suck at risk assessment, we are just hard wired to respond to the big, unusual events, at the expense of ignoring the smaller, yet much more common events closer to us.
There are always what ifs, like "what if you are surrounded by 12 ninjas with uzis? You can play that game all day, but in the end, you have to be able to look at what the odds say are going to effect you, and not pay too much attention to the sky is falling bloggers.
"There is no secret ingredient"
Po, the kung fu panda
Po, the kung fu panda
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anticlmber
- Posts: 3393
- Joined: Wed Jun 18, 2003 12:34 am
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Clevis Hitch
- Posts: 1461
- Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 5:10 pm
Wes "Read my hips"...the things im saying that are going to happen are really going to happen. Right now we're in a deflationary cycle. The whipsnap of that is an inflationary cycle. They BOTH have to happen. The market balances itself. Its as inevitable as the sun rising/setting.
What happens in a deflationary cycle is that fear rules the marketplace. Everyone is afraid. So they retract their spending. They stop buying new cars, new homes, and/or taking on large debt items. The bureau of statistics calls this "durable goods". i.e. items that last over 3 years. Consumables, items lasting less than 3 years, also takes a hit. Mostly because that has to do with disposable income. This large scale reduction in spending actually causes industries to fail. i.e. The construction industry, the manufacturing industry, and retail goods. For the construction industry you have the "cascading effect" of big box store retailers, local retailers, the lumber industry, the appliance industry, the solid copper wire industry, just basically think of anything youd see in a Lowes or HDepot. All of those fabricatiors/manufacturers are in a major decline. For the automotive industry you have the line workers, all of the suppliers all the way up to the raw materials manufacturers i.e. the steel, plastic, wire, manufacturers, and everyone related to this industry is all upside down.
Fear rules the marketplace. All of the investors are seeking shelter from the storm. Historically, that shelter has been the commodities market i.e. gold, silver, some industrial metals (platinum), even diamonds. The new gold of the 22nd century is petroleum products.
The turnbuckle that makes us go from a deflationary cycle to an inflationary cycle is when all of these manufacturers go out of business. Right now in the deflationary cycle, theyve stopped manufacturing, lets say washing machines. Theres just not enough demand to run 3 shifts at the Whirlpool plant. So they only run one. What happens is, people dont spend money on a new washing machine until they ABSOLUTELY have to. But because the washing machine manufacturers have stopped producing, there becomes a "rarity" in the marketplace. And when the law of supply/demand is applied, thats when the inflationary cycle begins.
In summary, as deep as the deflationary cycle goes, is as high as the inflationary cycle will peak. There are a lot of people out there right now gambling on commodities hoping to time the market to jump in at the bottom of the deflationary cycle and make a killing. Whats really going to happen, is that theyre going to lose their shirts.
So my dear friend, anticlimber...all of my gear that i bought during the deflationary cycle will actually grow in value along with the economy because 90 percent of it is either a durable good or a commodity. Id actually lose $ by returning my shit.
What happens in a deflationary cycle is that fear rules the marketplace. Everyone is afraid. So they retract their spending. They stop buying new cars, new homes, and/or taking on large debt items. The bureau of statistics calls this "durable goods". i.e. items that last over 3 years. Consumables, items lasting less than 3 years, also takes a hit. Mostly because that has to do with disposable income. This large scale reduction in spending actually causes industries to fail. i.e. The construction industry, the manufacturing industry, and retail goods. For the construction industry you have the "cascading effect" of big box store retailers, local retailers, the lumber industry, the appliance industry, the solid copper wire industry, just basically think of anything youd see in a Lowes or HDepot. All of those fabricatiors/manufacturers are in a major decline. For the automotive industry you have the line workers, all of the suppliers all the way up to the raw materials manufacturers i.e. the steel, plastic, wire, manufacturers, and everyone related to this industry is all upside down.
Fear rules the marketplace. All of the investors are seeking shelter from the storm. Historically, that shelter has been the commodities market i.e. gold, silver, some industrial metals (platinum), even diamonds. The new gold of the 22nd century is petroleum products.
The turnbuckle that makes us go from a deflationary cycle to an inflationary cycle is when all of these manufacturers go out of business. Right now in the deflationary cycle, theyve stopped manufacturing, lets say washing machines. Theres just not enough demand to run 3 shifts at the Whirlpool plant. So they only run one. What happens is, people dont spend money on a new washing machine until they ABSOLUTELY have to. But because the washing machine manufacturers have stopped producing, there becomes a "rarity" in the marketplace. And when the law of supply/demand is applied, thats when the inflationary cycle begins.
In summary, as deep as the deflationary cycle goes, is as high as the inflationary cycle will peak. There are a lot of people out there right now gambling on commodities hoping to time the market to jump in at the bottom of the deflationary cycle and make a killing. Whats really going to happen, is that theyre going to lose their shirts.
So my dear friend, anticlimber...all of my gear that i bought during the deflationary cycle will actually grow in value along with the economy because 90 percent of it is either a durable good or a commodity. Id actually lose $ by returning my shit.
